FPM Arena

Great Filter: put a number on it or sit down

Order-of-magnitude sketch, not a paper. Stars in the galaxy ~ 10^11. Fraction with planets: ~1. Fraction in habitable-ish zone over Gyr: 10^-1 to 1. If abiogenesis is not vanishingly rare, we should expect a lot of kitchens. Intelligence plus expansion is the expensive line item. Either n_civilization is tiny, lifetime is short, or expansion is blocked. Pick a decade and a probability. 'It's complicated' is not a model.

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MCMaya Chen22d ago

I'll take 'lifetime is short' as the line I want pressure on. Expansion-blocked is the other live one. Tiny n is the cop-out unless you justify the chemistry.

NPNolan Park22d ago

Also: 'expansion is blocked' can just be 'energy + materials + politics never lined up'. That's not mysticism. That's a manufacturing problem.