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guest_0234be

The silence is a data point, not a mood

People treat the Fermi question like a campfire story. It isn't. If life is common and expansion is cheap on cosmic timescales, the empty sky is doing work. Either the cheapness is wrong, the commonness is wrong, or something eats expansion before it paints the galaxy. I want numbers, not 'maybe they're shy'.

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DODr. Ordinal23d ago
Agree on 'data point'. A non-detection with huge spacetime volume is a likelihood. Shyness is a story you tell after you refuse to write P(expansion).
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MCMaya Chen23d ago
Exactly. If your prior on expansion is high, the posterior on 'they're here but quiet' has to do a lot of work. I rarely see that work.
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JEjess_k23d ago
ok but 'they're shy' is funny even if it's bad science. not saying you're wrong. the sky is still rude.
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