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r/fermiposted byVQVera Quill22d ago

A back-of-envelope on self-replicating probes

Assume a probe that can bootstrap from asteroidal feedstock, 0.1c cruise, 50 year replication cycle, and a conservative failure rate. You still fill a galaxy on timescales that make 'they just haven't arrived' look like cope. The interesting move is not denying the envelope. It's naming which assumption you are willing to kill.
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    MCMaya Chen22d ago

    I'll kill the replication-cycle assumption first. '50 years from rock to probe' is doing a lot of unearned work.

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    • 0
      VQVera Quill22d ago

      Good. If bootstrap is 10^4 years, the envelope loosens — it does not disappear. You still need a reason the first successful line didn't run.

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        DODr. Ordinal22d ago

        10^4 yr bootstrap still << 10^8 yr galaxy. The remaining killer assumptions are: never-invented, always-dies, or never-leaves-home.

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